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Global Oil Market Outlook 2026

  🏦 Demand Trends Global demand growth: Expected to average 930 kb/d in 2026 , slightly higher than 2025’s 850 kb/d. Drivers: Recovery in petrochemical feedstocks and steady transport fuel demand. Regional split: Non‑OECD countries account for all demand growth, while advanced economies remain flat or declining. Structural slowdown: Growth is well below the 2010–2019 average of 1.4 mb/d, reflecting electrification of transport and rising biofuels use . 🛢 Supply Outlook World oil supply: Projected to rise by 2.5 mb/d in 2026 , reaching 108.7 mb/d . Non‑OPEC+ contribution: About 1.3 mb/d of gains, led by the Americas. OPEC+ production: Rebounds after earlier cuts, though Middle Eastern output remains vulnerable to geopolitical risks. Russia: Sharp rebound in production offsets declines in Kazakhstan and other OPEC producers. 🏭 Refining Activity Crude throughputs: Forecast to average 84.6 mb/d in 2026 , with annual growth of 770 kb/d . Seasonal maintenance: United Sta...